Pinellas Property Online

Housing activity is expected to rebound later this year but at a slower pace than previously projected, according to the March 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae’s Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group.

The report says the drop in new and existing home sales disappointed analysts, but the setback is viewed as temporary with gains expected in the second quarter and trending up on a sustainable basis by year-end.

The outlook continues to call for moderate economic growth of 3 percent for 2010 as the labor market appears poised to create jobs, the service sector shows improvement, and consumer spending joins in as part of the economic storyline. Consumer spending grew a solid 0.3 percent in January, suggesting a pickup in the first quarter despite the possibility of a slow down in February.

Mortgage rates held below the 5 percent threshold for the third straight week as the Federal Reserve prepares to end a program that has kept rates at or near record lows.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage edged up to 4.96 percent this week from 4.95 percent a week earlier, the mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said Thursday.

Rates dropped to a record low of 4.71 percent in December and have hovered around 5 percent since, kept down by the Fed’s $1.25 trillion program to buy up mortgage securities issued by Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae.

The Fed said this week that this program would end on March 31, as expected. But some analysts fear that once the program ends, mortgage rates could rise. That could weaken the fragile recovery in housing and the overall economy. Still, the Fed has left the door open to extending the program if the economy weakens.

How many foreclosed homes are really out there? No one can say for sure, but the number seems to be somewhere between 500,000 and 1 million.

To date, no one has been able to track the total number of properties owned by banks, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and mortgage investors. Here are a few approximations:

• Barclays Capital uses foreclosure data from mortgage securities to estimate that there are slightly more than 600,000 homes in the process of foreclosure.

• RealtyTrac, which examines public records, estimates the number is closer to 700,000.

• Independent housing economist Tom Lawler combines data from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Administration, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and securitization trusts to conclude that there are actually about 500,000.

Though credit market indices appeared poised on the edge of losing their strength, with rates likely falling in the face of investor concerns about the week’s Treasury security actions, the auctions very quickly showed their strength over the week of March 8 through March 12. There were causes that almost seemed to conflict with one another. Doubts about the ability of European Union nations to resolve debt problems seemed to fade, keeping rates from rising on fears that near-term debt problems would push them higher. But, at the same time, there was an apparent flight to safety evidenced in the higher percentage of foreign investor bids in the auctions (35% as against 32% in the prior recent auctions).

 

Florida’s existing home sales rose in February, which means that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison for the past year and a half (18 months), according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®.

Existing home sales increased 21 percent last month with a total of 11,890 homes sold statewide compared to 9,867 homes sold in February 2009, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide existing home sales last month increased 13.6 percent over statewide sales activity in January.

Florida Realtors also reported a 59 percent increase in statewide sales of existing condos in February compared to the previous year’s sales figure; statewide existing condo sales last month rose 9.8 percent over the total units sold in January.

“Homebuyers should take advantage of favorable conditions in the current housing market,” said 2010 Florida Realtors® President Wendell Davis, a broker with Watson Realty Corp. in Jacksonville. “Mortgage rates remain near historic lows at just under 5 percent, but they won’t stay at that level forever. Plus, only six weeks are left before the extended and expanded homebuyer tax credit expires. First-time buyers and current homeowners who want to buy their next home in time to use the tax credit must have a purchase contract signed before the April 30 deadline – then they’ll have until June 30 to close the transaction.”

Seventeen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing home sales in January, while all but one MSA had higher condo sales. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for 20 consecutive months.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $131,300; a year ago, it was $141,800 for a 7 percent decrease. Analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in January 2010 was $163,600, down 0.4 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In Massachusetts, the statewide median resales price was $300,000 in January; in California, it was $287,440; in New York, it was $242,750; and in Maryland, it was $234,894.